Video - This is How Easy It Is to Lie With Statistics

  • Metadata:
    • author: Zach Star
    • title: This is How Easy It Is to Lie With Statistics
    • year: 20192019

    • url: Weblink
  • This could be used as an introductory video in the ethics part of a statistics lecture
  • The anecdote from target shows the power of statistics: A mathematician came up with a model to predict pregnancies from the purchase habits alone and send coupons to the people for that. This model detected a teenage pregnancy even before the father of the teen would know.
  • Similarly, statistics have been used in the courtroom to determine probabilities of alternative explanations (most of the time, these are misused)
  • However, even though statistics are really powerful, it is easy to lie with them
    • 80% of dentists recommend Colgate (true if dentists can specify multiple products, but the phrasing makes it sound like Colgate is at the top of the list)
    • 5% of people drop out -> 10% of people drop out, a 5% increase or a 100% increase?
    • Correlation-Causation fallacies
    • Simpsons Paradox
    • Prosecutors Fallacy P(a/b) != P(b/a)
      • other people looking exactly like the culprit
    • Bar graphs that do not have 0 at their bottom